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Key Judgements
In an attempt to counter international fear of China’s growing economic and political strength, the Chinese government has launched a global public diplomacy campaign known as “peaceful rise”. This development suggests that China will not likely to adopt a forceful approach toward its regional neighbours.
- We assess that China has shifted from the very aggressive and violent policy of the 1970s and 1980s to a much more diplomatic route in the 1990s.
- Chinese Premier Wen Jiabao has given assurance that China’s rise will not come at the cost of any other country, nor pose a threat to any country. It is but an attempt to grow economically and increase China’s diplomatic presence.
- If China can prove their sincerity, China’s neighbours need not worry of the rising military strength of the Chinese government. However, there have been a few questions about the sincerity of the Chinese government in the past when they have continuously breached treaties signed with their neighbours. One fine example was in 1998 when China decided to send warships to the region and undertaking construction operations on Mischief Island. This blatant act shows that China has openly breached the code of conduct signed in 1995 with the Philippines.
- Despite all this, I remain optimistic that China will not employ a forceful approach to push for its claims in the South China Sea, as the Chinese government would realise that, by using force, it would seriously undercut its long-term prospects for fostering closer, more dependable economic relations with its Asian neighbours.
